Stock Market Today, October 30, 2026: S&P 500 Gains 0.7% as Jobs Data Cools
The S&P 500 rose 0.7% Friday to close the week roughly flat and within 2% of its early-October record, after October hiring slowed to 125,000 — below the 140,000 consensus — and wage growth cooled to 3.5%, pulling implied December Fed hike odds from 78% to about 68%.
U.S. equities finished the week on an upbeat note. The S&P 500 added 0.7% on Friday, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.0% as rate-sensitive technology rebounded from Thursday's PCE selloff, and the Dow advanced 0.5%. That left the S&P roughly flat on the week and still within 2% of the all-time high set in early October, with the equal-weight index lagging as energy gave back part of its weekly gain. Volume ran near the 30-day average and volatility indices barely moved — the market is repricing probabilities, not pricing a shock.
The catalyst was the October employment report. Nonfarm payrolls rose 125,000 — below the 140,000 consensus and the slowest monthly pace since April — while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2% and average hourly earnings decelerated to 0.2% on the month and 3.5% from a year earlier, the slowest annual pace since early 2023. The mix of softer hiring and cooler wage growth is exactly what equity bulls wanted: enough weakness to ease tightening pressure without signalling a hard landing.
Rate expectations moved accordingly. Fed funds futures trimmed the implied probability of a December quarter-point hike from about 78% before the print to roughly 68% after it. Two-year Treasury yields fell seven basis points to 3.64%, while the ten-year slipped three, steepening the curve modestly off its most inverted level of the month. The dollar eased against the euro and the yen as front-end yields led the move. September PCE at 3.1% keeps the inflation side of the mandate hot enough that the December 9-10 meeting remains genuinely two-sided.
Sector leadership favoured the rate-sensitive complex: real estate and utilities led, technology added 0.8%, and the energy group lagged as Brent drifted off Thursday's highs above $114. European and Asian sessions had set a firmer tone into the release, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.3% and French sovereign spreads three basis points tighter. With the FOMC and PCE now behind the tape, the ISM services print on Wednesday, November 4 is the next macro signpost — a prices-paid reading above 58 would put the hike back in play before the December meeting.
Sources
- S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow closing levels, October 30
- CME FedWatch implied policy probabilities after the October employment report
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