Oil Prices Today, October 31, 2026: Brent $113.40 Up 1.1% on Week as OPEC+ Holds

Crude enters the weekend holding most of its geopolitical premium. Brent settled near $113.40 a barrel on Friday, off about 0.8% on the day but up roughly 1.1% on the week — a second consecutive weekly close above $113 after a run that printed $114-plus highs earlier in the month. WTI hovered near $100.50, leaving the transatlantic spread close to $12.90. Front-month spreads stayed in backwardation, a sign spot barrels remain tight even as the growth outlook softened.

Supply discipline is doing the heavy lifting. OPEC+ output remains roughly 1.2 million barrels a day below its announced quota ceiling, according to third-party tanker trackers, and shipping data show no meaningful recovery in exports from the corridors disrupted since August. The U.S. inventory tape reinforced the tightness: crude stocks fell 8.6 million barrels in the latest weekly report, a surprise draw that kept the front end bid through the employment data.

The demand side capped the week rather than breaking it. Softer October hiring — payrolls at 125,000 against a 140,000 consensus — trimmed expectations for U.S. consumption into the winter, but product markets told a tighter story. Distillate cracks widened as heating-oil stocks sit about 8% below the five-year average, and U.S. product supplied over the past four weeks is running slightly above its five-year seasonal average. In Europe, diesel demand is running below seasonal norms because price is doing the rationing.

Next week is an inventory-and-ISM tape. The OPEC+ technical committee meets midweek with no policy change expected, leaving the EIA weekly report in charge until Wednesday's ISM services print adds the demand signal. The range that has held since mid-October — a $110 floor with resistance into the $116 area — breaks only if the two move together: a supply disappointment alongside a prices-paid reading above 58 would push the strip and the inflation narrative higher at the same time.