Oil Prices Today, October 30, 2026: Brent $113.40 Off 0.8% as Supply Bites

Crude held its ground even as the growth outlook softened. Brent settled near $113.40 a barrel on Friday, off about 0.8% on the day but up roughly 1.1% on the week, marking a second consecutive weekly close above $113 after a run that printed $114-plus highs earlier in the week. WTI hovered around $100.50, supported by a surprise 8.6-million-barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories. Front-month spreads stayed in backwardation, a sign spot barrels remain tight even as demand expectations cooled.

Supply-side discipline is doing the heavy lifting. OPEC+ output remains roughly 1.2 million barrels a day below its announced quota ceiling, according to third-party tanker trackers, and shipping data show no meaningful recovery in exports from the disrupted corridors that have anchored the geopolitical premium since August. Export volumes from the most disrupted routes remain well below the norms that prevailed before August. The softer dollar and lower front-end yields added marginal support at the close.

The demand side is where the jobs report mattered. Softer hiring and cooler wage growth trimmed expectations for U.S. consumption into the winter, capping Friday's session — but not enough to break the range. Product markets told a tighter story: distillate cracks widened as heating-oil stocks sit 8% below the five-year average, U.S. product supplied over the past four weeks is running slightly above its five-year seasonal average, and refiners heading into the winter turn keep the complex bid.

The calendar into next week is light on OPEC headlines and heavy on inventory data. The OPEC+ technical committee meets midweek with no policy change expected, leaving the inventory tape in charge. The EIA's next weekly report and the ISM services print on Wednesday, November 4 will decide whether Brent retests the $116 area or drifts back toward the $110 floor that has held since mid-October. For now the market is paying for optionality against a supply shock it cannot yet price away.