Stock Market Today, October 31, 2026: S&P 500 Gains 0.8% in October as Jobs Cool

U.S. equities finished October from the sidelines, and the tape has already printed the month's score. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% over the month, the Nasdaq Composite added 1.4% and the Dow industrials rose 0.3%, leaving the benchmark within 2% of the all-time high set in the first week of October. Friday's month-end session did most of the work: the S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Nasdaq gained 1.0% as rate-sensitive technology rebounded from Thursday's PCE selloff, and the Dow advanced 0.5%. Volume ran near the 30-day average and volatility indices barely moved — the market is repricing probabilities, not pricing a shock.

The catalyst that closed the month was the October employment report. Nonfarm payrolls rose 125,000 against a 140,000 consensus — the slowest monthly pace since April — while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% and average hourly earnings cooled to 0.2% on the month and 3.5% year over year, the slowest annual pace since early 2023. Fed funds futures trimmed the implied probability of a December quarter-point hike from about 78% before the print to roughly 68% after it. Two-year Treasury yields fell seven basis points to 3.64%, the ten-year slipped three to about 3.54%, and the curve steepened modestly off its most inverted level of the month.

Underneath the monthly headline, October was a story of two halves. A record set in the first week gave way to a three-week consolidation as the 3.1% September PCE print and hawkish Fed commentary rebuilt tightening bets, before Friday's jobs relief restored the month's gain. Sector leadership tracked that swing: energy and financials led on earnings revisions and the commodity backdrop, real estate and utilities outperformed on softer-rate days, and the equal-weight index lagged the cap-weighted tape. Third-quarter reporting is roughly 80% complete with blended earnings growth near 7%, and 2027 guidance has turned cautious on energy and input costs.

The month ends with December genuinely two-sided. ISM services on Wednesday, November 4 is the first test — consensus looks for 53.2, with a prices-paid reading above 58 enough to rebuild the hawkish narrative within hours. The Bank of England decides Thursday and Treasury refunding lands Wednesday afternoon. With the FOMC still scheduled for December 9-10 and hike odds at 68%, November's calendar has to be earned one release at a time — starting with Wednesday's services print.