Bitcoin Today, November 1, 2026: $82,350 Up 0.4% as ETF Outflows Slow

Bitcoin is the one major asset trading live through the weekend, and it is drifting rather than deciding. The largest cryptocurrency changed hands near $82,350 on Sunday, up about 0.4% over 24 hours in thin liquidity, holding above the 50-day moving average near $81,800 that Friday's session reclaimed. The mechanical event that mattered is behind it: roughly $11 billion in BTC options rolled off Deribit on October 30 with max pain near $80,000, and the market came through without the squeeze that usually follows a large pin.

What the expiry produced was a leverage reset rather than a demand signal. Funding rates on perpetual futures sit near 0.01% per eight hours — neutral, not bullish — and open interest is rebuilding toward pre-expiry levels from a lower base. The flow backdrop has stopped deteriorating: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted a $41 million outflow on Thursday, a fraction of the October 22 single-day shock of $635.6 million, and October's cumulative tally is only modestly negative. That is what a market looks like when the marginal seller has finished selling, not when a new buyer has arrived.

The macro tape remains the swing factor, and it is the same question for bitcoin as for equities. December Fed hike odds hold near 68% after payrolls at 125,000 against a 140,000 consensus, two-year Treasury yields sit at 4.61%, and the token's rolling 21-day correlation with the Nasdaq-100 is near 0.67. Ether has outperformed through the rebound above $4,400, which historically signals risk appetite broadening rather than defensive rotation. Wednesday's ISM services print is the next trigger: a prices-paid reading above 58 would rebuild tightening bets and test the 50-day from above, while a cooler print keeps the October swing high near $86,000 in play.

The level map is unchanged. Support holds at $79,200 to $77,600, the July low zone that held last Monday and the line that separates consolidation from a lower high. Resistance runs from $86,000 into the mid-$90,000 area that capped September's failed breakout. With expiry risk cleared and positioning neutral, the market is waiting for a reason — and the next reason comes from a bond market, not from crypto.