Bitcoin Today, October 31, 2026: $82,350 Up 0.4% as Hike Odds Ease

Bitcoin is holding the post-expiry level through the weekend. The largest cryptocurrency changed hands near $82,350 on Saturday, up about 0.4% over the past 24 hours in thin holiday-weekend liquidity, after Friday's session reclaimed the 50-day moving average near $81,800. The catalyst was mechanical: roughly $11 billion in BTC options rolled off Deribit on October 30, with max-pain clustered near $80,000, and the absence of a post-expiry squeeze let spot lead rather than pin.

The flow backdrop has stopped deteriorating. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted a $41 million daily outflow on Thursday — a fraction of the October 22 single-day shock of $635.6 million — and October's cumulative tally remains only modestly negative. Funding rates on perpetual futures reset toward neutral at about 0.01% per eight hours, and open interest is rebuilding toward pre-expiry levels without the leverage spike that preceded the October 22 flush — the cleanest sign that positioning, not just price, has reset.

The macro tape remains the swing factor. Friday's softer wage print pulled front-end Treasury yields lower — the two-year fell seven basis points to 3.64% — and cut implied December Fed hike odds from about 78% to roughly 68%, a modest tailwind for high-beta assets. The dollar index slipped toward 101.3, and bitcoin's rolling 21-day correlation with the Nasdaq-100 sits near 0.67; ether outperformed above $4,400 as the rebound broadened beyond the largest token.

The level map into November is unchanged. Support holds at $79,200-$77,600 — the July low zone that held on Monday — while the path higher opens toward the October swing high near $86,000 and then the mid-$90,000 zone that capped last month's failed breakout. With expiry risk cleared, the next real test is Wednesday's ISM services print: a prices-paid reading above 58 would rebuild tightening bets and test the 50-day from above, while a cooler print keeps $86,000 in play.