Bitcoin Today, October 30, 2026: Reclaims $82,000 as $11B Expiry Clears

Bitcoin reclaimed the $82,000 handle on Friday. The largest cryptocurrency rose through the level in the wake of the October 30 options expiry — roughly $11 billion in BTC contracts rolled off Deribit — reclaiming the 50-day moving average near $81,800 that had capped the tape since the slide to $79,250 at the start of the week. Max-pain clustered near $80,000, but the absence of a post-expiry squeeze let spot lead rather than pin. The second test is whether $82,000 now flips from reclaimed resistance into support.

The flow backdrop has stopped deteriorating. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted a $41 million daily outflow on Thursday, a fraction of the October 22 single-day shock of $635.6 million, and October's cumulative tally remains only modestly negative. Funding rates on perpetual futures reset toward neutral at about 0.01% per eight hours after drifting negative midweek, and open interest rebuilt gradually toward pre-expiry levels without the leverage spike that preceded the October 22 flush.

The macro tape is the swing factor. Cooler wage growth pulled front-end Treasury yields lower and eased the dollar, and December Fed hike odds receded from about 78% before payrolls to roughly 68% after — a modest tailwind for the high-beta complex. The dollar index slipped on the day, extending the post-payrolls easing in front-end rates. Bitcoin's rolling 21-day correlation with the Nasdaq-100 sits near 0.67, and Friday's rebound in rate-sensitive technology carried digital assets with it; ether outperformed above $4,400.

Support holds at $79,200-$77,600 — the July low zone that held on Monday — while the path higher opens toward the October swing high near $86,000 and then the mid-$90,000 zone that capped last month's failed breakout. Ether's relative strength is the first sign that the complex's rebound is broadening. With expiry risk behind it and the FOMC and PCE out of the way, the next real test is Wednesday's ISM services print and whether risk appetite broadens beyond the mega-cap tape.