Oil Prices Today, November 1, 2026: Brent $113.40 Up 1.1% as OPEC+ Lags Quota

Crude is holding its geopolitical premium into the weekend. Brent settled near $113.40 a barrel on Friday — off about 0.8% on the day, up roughly 1.1% on the week and set for a second consecutive weekly close above $113 — with WTI near $100.50 and the transatlantic spread close to $12.90. Front-month spreads remain in backwardation, the futures market's way of saying spot barrels are still tight even as the growth outlook softened.

The floor is a supply curve that has stopped responding to price. OPEC+ output is running roughly 1.2 million barrels a day below its own announced ceiling, according to tanker-tracker estimates, and there is no visible mechanism to close that gap quickly — spare capacity is concentrated in the hands of producers with little incentive to use it. The U.S. inventory tape reinforced the tightness: crude stocks fell 8.6 million barrels in the latest weekly report, a surprise draw that kept the front end bid through the employment data. Distillate is the tighter market, with heating-oil stocks about 8% below the five-year average and winter demand still ahead.

Demand capped the week rather than breaking it. October payrolls at 125,000 against a 140,000 consensus trimmed expectations for U.S. consumption into the winter, but product supplied over the past four weeks is running slightly above its five-year seasonal average. In Europe, diesel demand is running below seasonal norms because price is doing the rationing. This is a market where consumption is rotating, not collapsing.

The week ahead is an inventory-and-ISM tape. The OPEC+ technical committee meets midweek with no policy change expected, leaving its compliance table the document to watch, and the EIA report lands Wednesday morning alongside ISM services — demand and supply signals arriving together, the one configuration that has historically broken this kind of range. The range in question is a $110 floor with resistance into the $116 area, held since mid-October; a break higher needs a supply disappointment beside a prices-paid reading above 58, while a break lower needs a demand shock large enough to overwhelm a 1.2 million barrel a day shortfall.