Stock Market Today, November 1, 2026: S&P 500 Gains 0.7% as Hike Odds Recede
U.S. equities enter November with the S&P 500 up 1.6% for October after Friday's 0.7% rally, as a 125,000 payroll print against a 140,000 consensus cut implied December Fed hike odds from about 78% to roughly 68% — leaving Wednesday's ISM services survey the first test of the repricing.
Cash markets are closed for the weekend and the tape is quiet, but November opens with October's scoreboard already printed. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% in Friday's month-end session, the Nasdaq Composite added 1.0% and the Dow industrials advanced 0.5%, completing monthly gains of 1.6%, 1.4% and 0.3% respectively and leaving the benchmark within 2% of the record set in the first week of October. Volume ran near the 30-day average and volatility indices barely moved — the tape is repricing probabilities, not pricing a shock.
The catalyst was the October employment report. Nonfarm payrolls rose 125,000 against a 140,000 consensus — the slowest monthly pace since April — while average hourly earnings cooled to 0.2% on the month and 3.5% year over year, the slowest annual pace since early 2023. Fed funds futures trimmed the implied probability of a December quarter-point hike from about 78% before the print to roughly 68% after it, two-year Treasury yields fell six basis points to 4.61%, and the 2s10s spread held near 37 basis points.
The week ahead supplies four chances to argue with that pricing. ISM manufacturing lands Monday with consensus at 49.1, a fourth consecutive month below 50. Wednesday is the centre of gravity: ISM services at 10:00 with consensus at 53.2, and a prices-paid reading above 58 would rebuild the hawkish narrative within minutes. The quarterly refunding announcement the same morning tests the long end, the Bank of England decides Thursday, and preliminary Michigan sentiment closes the week on Friday.
Underneath, third-quarter reporting is roughly 80% complete with blended earnings growth near 7% and 2027 guidance turning cautious on energy and input costs. With the FOMC still scheduled for December 9-10 and hike odds at 68% — close enough to a coin flip that one survey can move it ten points in either direction — the calendar rewards patience more than conviction. Futures reopen Sunday evening to a November that has to be earned one release at a time.
Sources
- S&P Dow Jones Indices, Nasdaq and NYSE closing levels for the week ended October 30, 2026
- CME FedWatch implied policy probabilities after the October employment report
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